India can still qualify for the WTC finals, but it will require an impressive run of results.
South Africa’s emphatic 109-run victory over Sri Lanka in the second Test at Gqeberha has propelled them back to the top of the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) standings. This crucial victory put the Proteas ahead of Australia, giving them a strong position in their quest to secure a place in the 2025 WTC final.
Even if South Africa wins just one of its two remaining matches against Pakistan, it will most likely qualify for the final. While South Africa appear to have solidified their chances, the battle for second place in the final remains close, with India and Australia still in contention.
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After India’s loss to Australia in the day-night Test, Rohit Sharma’s team fell to third place in the rankings, with a percentage (PCT) of 57.29. India now have just three more Tests left to play in the current WTC cycle, leaving them with limited opportunities to make up ground.
Australia and South Africa still have more series left as South Africa will play Pakistan at home while Australia will face Sri Lanka away. This means that the fight for second place in the final is likely to come down to between India and Australia, and India must hope for a good performance in the remaining Tests.
How can India continue to qualify for the WTC finals?
India can still qualify for the WTC finals, but it will require an impressive run of results. The best case scenario for India would be to win all the remaining Tests against Australia.
Scenario 1: If India win the Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT) series by a margin of 4-1, their PCT will increase to 64.04, which would be enough to put them above Australia, even if Australia wins their next series against Sri Lanka 2. -0.
Scenario 2: If India wins the Border-Gavaskar Trophy 3-1, their qualification for the WTC final would still depend on other results. They would need favorable results in the South Africa vs Pakistan and Sri Lanka vs Australia series to secure their place in the final.
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Scenario 3: If India lose another Test in this series, i.e. if India wins the Border-Gavaskar Trophy 3-2, their qualification chances could be at risk. South Africa going 1-1 or better against Pakistan and Australia defeating Sri Lanka 2-0 would knock India out of the top two. While not the worst-case scenario, India’s destiny would no longer be under its control.
Scenario 4: If India draw the series 2-2 with Australia, then India would need Sri Lanka to beat Australia in both Tests, adding uncertainty to their qualification hopes.
While South Africa’s position at the top seems more secure, India’s path to the WTC final remains within its control, provided it performs well in the ongoing series against Australia.
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