The race for the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) 2023-25 ​​final is heating up, with South Africa’s recent victory in Durban shaking up the standings. South Africa is now in second place between Australia and India, while Sri Lanka and New Zealand remain in contention in fifth and fourth place respectively.

Despite the tight competition, India’s path to a third consecutive WTC final is still within reach, although it may require outside results or even a tiebreaker.

Also read: Who will reach the final of the WTC 2025? ICC World Test Championship 2025 final qualifying scenarios explained

Scenarios for India qualification

Sarvesh, a cricket analyst, outlined the possible scenarios for India’s qualification in X. India’s chances largely depend on their performance in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT) and results of other series.

If India wins two of its four remaining matches, it can eliminate New Zealand, who can only achieve a maximum PCT of 57.1%. However, to guarantee qualification, India needs at least a 3-1 win against Australia to stay ahead in the race.

A 3-1 win in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy would boost India’s chances, but they would still need South Africa to beat Sri Lanka in the second Test. If India win 3-2, it will depend on Sri Lanka losing or drawing at least one match against Australia to keep their hopes alive.

What happens if the BGT Series ends 2-2?

A 2-2 result in the BGT makes things much more difficult for India. They would need South Africa to beat Sri Lanka 2-0 and hope Sri Lanka won no more than 1-0 against Australia. The most interesting scenario would be if both the BGT ends 2-2 and the Sri Lanka-Australia series ends in a 0-0 draw. In this case, India and Australia would have the same PCT of 55.3%, which could lead to a tiebreaker.

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What happens in a tiebreaker?

If India and Australia are tied, the following criteria would decide the finalist:

1. Series wins: Both teams would finish with three series wins, leaving nothing to separate them.

According to rule 16.12.2 “When two or more teams have an identical percentage of points at the end of the Round phase, they will be ordered according to the greatest number of wins in the Series.”

2. Wins in away series: Both teams would have the same number, so the winner would not be decided.

According to rule 16.12.3 “If the tie persists, they will be ordered according to the highest percentage of available points obtained by each team in their away games (Away Points Percentage).”

3. ICC Test Rankings: Australia, currently ahead of India, would likely retain their top position and qualify.

According to rule 16.12.4 “If the tie continues, the team that is ranked highest in the ICC Men’s Test Team Rankings on the last day of the competition window (Wednesday, April 30, 2025) ) will occupy the highest place.”

India’s best chance is to win at least three matches in the BGT, with a 4-1 or 3-0 result being the most ideal. However, if things don’t go as planned, India’s qualification could depend on a playoff, where the ICC rankings will play a key role.

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